Dec 11, 2009

IIP Data for October

India's industrial output grew by a robust 10.3% in October against a paltry 0.1% a year ago, powered by manufacturing, particularly consumer durables, which was driven by the stimulus packages.

The strong industrial production data came days after better-than-expected economic growth of 7.9% in the 2nd quarter of this fiscal, reflecting that the economy would sustain the recovery provided agriculture does not slide too much. For the first seven months of this fiscal, industry expanded by 7.1% against 4.3% a year ago.

Manufacturing, which has almost 80% weight in the Index of Industrial Production, grew by 11.1% against -0.6% a year ago, when the industry faced the full impact of the world financial and economic crisis after the collapse of US financial services icon Lehman Brothers.
Within manufacturing, consumer durables production expanded by 21% in October against -1.6 per cent a year ago.

Mining production grew by 8.2% in the month against 3.2% and electricity generation expanded by 4.7% compared to 4.4%.
Industrial growth for September was revised to 9.6% from provisional estimate of 9.1%.

Reliance Infrastructure bags Rs.1,000-crore road project

Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group flagship company Reliance Infrastructure Ltd (R-Infra) has won a Rs.1,000-crore (Rs.10-billion) road project from the Gujarat government, within a week after winning the Rs.1,725-crore (Rs.17.25 billion) Pune-Satara Road project from the National Highway Authority of India.

R-Infra quoted Rs.42-crore (Rs.420-million) premium over the bids of rival companies such as GVK Power and Infrastructure Limited, GMR Infrastructure, B Sennaih and C&C, JMC Srei and Sadhbhav,

The project is to execute a 71 KM four-six lane corridor connecting the ports of Mundra and Kandla in Gujarat. The project has to be completed by December 2012 on a design, build, finance, operate and transfer (toll) basis with a concession period of 25 years.

R-Infra is now executing nine road projects with a total outlay of Rs 7,500 crore (Rs 75 billion) totaling more than 700 kilometers. Two months ago, the company had operationalised its two toll road projects worth Rs.760 Cr (Rs.7.6 billion) in Tamil Nadu.
The rest of the road projects are at various stages of development. All road projects of the company are executed by Reliance Infraventures, a 100 per cent subsidiary of R-Infra. The company plans to increase its investments in road projects to over Rs 20,000 crore (Rs 200 billion) by 2012. R-Infra is also looking for opportunities in ultra mega road projects across India,

Dec 10, 2009

Oil Bonds to be issued

Petroleum ministry has sought oil bonds worth Rs.20,872 crore (Rs 208.72 billion) to compensate state-owned fuel retailers for the losses incurred on selling domestic LPG and kerosene below cost this fiscal.

Minister of state for petroleum and natural gas Jitin Prasada in a written reply to a question in the Lok Sabha said the finance ministry is yet to approve the oil bonds. Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum lost Rs 11,853 crore (Rs 118.53 billion) in revenues on not being allowed to raise LPG and kerosene prices in line with the cost during April- September.

An additional Rs 9,019 crore (Rs 90.19 billion) revenue loss is estimated for third quarter ending December 31, 2009.

The government, which had last fiscal issued oil bonds worth Rs 71,292 crore (Rs 712.92 billion), has not issued any bonds to the three PSUs for revenue losses during the current fiscal.

BUY - Mahindra Satyam

It’s very good news for Mahindra Satyam. The stock, which closed at Rs 103 on Wednesday, up 1%, has gained almost 12% in a week. Analysts say that the settlement for $70 million will eliminate the uncertainty surrounding its liabilities. Also it will save it from disgrace & might get be able to retain the client.
 
Upaid had filed the lawsuit in a Texas court seeking damages exceeding $1 billion, alleging forgery of documents necessary for transfer of proper title to its under an assignment agreement entered into in 1998.
 
Mahindra Satyam has agreed to pay $70 million to UK-based mobile payment services firm Upaid in an out-of-court settlement, ending uncertainty over one of its long-drawn legal liabilities.
In return, Upaid will drop all charges against Mahindra Satyam and also provide a royalty-free license on its patents on a worldwide and perpetual basis. The amount is a tenth of what Upaid was seeking in damages from the erstwhile Satyam.

BUY Mahindra Satyam with the target of Rs.150 in near term.

Dec 9, 2009

Sahyadri Industries - Potential Multibagger

Equity Share Capital – 9.56 Cr

No. of equity shares – 95,61,500
Promoter holding – 85.10%
Institutions – 3.89%
General Public – 11.01%
Market Cap – Rs.90 Cr
Book Value – Rs.61
Reserves – Rs.48 Cr
EPS – Rs.20.70
52 week high/low – Rs.105 / Rs.21.05
CMP – Rs.94
Sahyadri Industries Limited is 60+ years old company based out of Pune, engages in the production of cement roofing products in India. The company primarily offers fiber cement sheets, which are used for roofing of industrial sheds, warehouses, and residential houses. Its products also include corrugated cement sheets and roofing accessories, main doors, and spectra tiles. The company offers its products under the ‘Swastik’ brand name.

Sahyadri Industries, (SIL) has further planned to invest in additional 6 wind mill, 2 in the state of TamilNadu and 4 in Rajasthan. The wind power generation in TN will be consumed by SIL’s sheet manufacturing plant at Perundurai and power generation in Rajasthan will be sold to State Utility. In the process of wind power generation, SIL also generates carbon emission reduction which may be negotiated for price in international market under Clean Development Mechanism, subject to completing formalities and obtaining certificate of carbon emission reduction as per Kyoto Protocol.

SIL has posted very good numbers for H1FY10. Its total income was Rs.153 Cr (Rs.139 Cr) & Net profit of Rs.17.5 Cr (Rs.12.11 Cr). Thus it posted an EPS of Rs.18.30 Vs Rs.20.69 for the full year FY09. Hence SIL is most likely to post an EPS of Rs.33 in FY10, which would further go up to Rs.38 in FY11. So, at CMP of Rs.94, the share is trading at a P/E of 2.8x on FY10E and 2.4x on FY11E. Apart from this, its Net profit margin has improved to 11% as compared to that of 9% last year for the first half of financial year.

SIL has been forming higher highs and higher lows. The resistance on the upside is at Rs.105. A breach of this level should take the stock price to Rs.130. One should BUY this stock with a target of Rs.125 which is around its life time high. For longer term it may offer wonderful returns. However, its slow & steady kind of a stock & will require lots of patience to hold it.

Last 4 years’ performance:
Mar '06; Mar '07; Mar '08; Mar '09
(Rs. In Cr)
Total Income - 113.49; 160.75; 228.90; 253.38
Operating Profit - 25.35; 22.66; 30.47; 40.92
PBDT - 21.96; 15.02; 20.31; 33.75
PBT - 17.22; 6.72; 9.90; 25.77
Net Profit - 10.44; 3.84; 6.71; 19.79

Reserves - 22.98; 25.69; 33.09; 48.77
EPS (Rs) - 10.91; 4.01; 7.02; 20.70
Dividend/Share (Rs) - 2.00; 1.00; 1.00; 2.00
Operating Profit/ Share (Rs) - 27.75; 24.97; 32.31; 43.03

Book Value (Rs) - 34.03; 36.87; 42.65; 61.00

Godrej Properties' IPO fully subscribed


I have already written about Godrej Properties IPO. Just summarizing it here –(Please refer old postings for more details)
It is in the business of real estate development in India. It currently has real estate development projects in 10 cities in India, which are at various stages of development.
The proceeds of the issue will be used for acquisition of land development rights for forthcoming projects; construction of forthcoming project and repayment of loans. In an IPO press conference, the company said would use 30% of IPO funds to repay debt.

The company has land reserves of 391.04 acres, developable area of 82.74 million sqft and saleable area of 50.21 million sqft (including 27 million sqft in Ahmedabad).

The equity shares are proposed to be listed on the BSE and NSE. For the year ended March 31, 2009, the company reported profit after tax of Rs 74.74 crore on total income of Rs 188.13 crore. As on June 30, 2009, it has debt of Rs 745.78 crore on its books.

Investment Advisor S. P. Tulsian is not impressed with IPO pricing. His view is that Market-cap of GPL will be around Rs.3700 Cr but lots of mid-size companies with M-cap of Rs.1000-22000 Cr are available, in this space he likes Peninsula Land, Brigade Enterprise, Mahindra Lifespace, Marathon Nextgen realty. Further, GPL has posted Profit after tax of Rs.48 Cr on topline of Rs.125 Cr, even that has come from the sale of long term investments of about 58 Cr & so they haven’t got much from their core business.

Amit Dalal says that the investment in GPL will fetch good returns over a period of 2-3 years. He like the business model of GPL, but says that it is aggressively priced.

So overall, the IPO is looks a bit expensive as it is available at a P/E of around 37-39 whereas industry P/E is around 30. I would say that the investment for 2-3 years should be done. Also Godrej Ind holds around 80% stake in GPL, investment in it also may give you good returns. Last but not least, Godrej group is one of the oldest business groups of India and they have very good track record also.


Dec 4, 2009

Godrej Properties - Issue opens on 9th Dec

Mumbai based Godrej Properties Ltd. has fixed the price band for its initial public offering (IPO) of 94,29,750 equity shares of Rs 10 each, at Rs.490-530 per share. The issue will open for subscription on December 9 and will close on December 11, 2009.
GPL will raise around Rs.462 Cr – Rs.500 Cr through this issue, of which 30% would be used to repay debt i.e. around Rs.140-160 Cr. The issue will constitute 13.5% of the post issue paid-up capital of the company. Parent company, Godrej Industries currently holds 80.26% of equity share capital in the company.

It is in the business of real estate development in India. It currently has real estate development projects in 10 cities in India, which are at various stages of development. The proceeds of the issue will be used for acquisition of land development rights for forthcoming projects; construction of forthcoming project and repayment of loans.

The equity shares are proposed to be listed on the BSE and NSE. For the year ended March 31, 2009, the company reported profit after tax of Rs.74.74 Cr on total income of Rs.188.13 Cr. As on June 30, 2009, it has debt of Rs.745.78 Cr on its books. Later the debt would come down to around Rs.600 Cr.

Global Coordinators and book running lead managers to the issue are ICICI Securities Limited, Kotak Mahindra Capital Company Limited, IDFC – SSKI Limited and Nomura Financial Advisory & Securities (India) Private Limited. Karvy Computershare Private Limited is the registrar.
The IPO of GPL will re-rate Godrej Industries & we might see some positive movements happening in stock price of Godrej Ind.

Dec 2, 2009

Nearterm Outlook

After witnessing about 7% correction in the month of October 2009, the bulls attempted a comeback in the month of November 2009 with the markets re-gaining the 17,000 peak, only to witness profit-booking, once again, at these higher levels.

Nonetheless, it was the bull camp that had the upper hand as the Sensex managed to close the month with about 3% gains, which were cut sharply on the last couple of days as the Dubai debt crisis sent equities the world over on a downward spiral. While positive global cues supported the Indian stock markets for most part of the month aided by the Federal Reserve’s promise to keep interest rates low for an extended period of time; accelerated action on the divestment front in the country and better-than-expected IIP numbers helped investor sentiments.

The weakness in the Dollar Index has also been helping the flows away from dollar-denominated assets and into emerging markets. For the month of November, FII inflows were at about Rs5,000Cr even as domestic MFs continued to remain net sellers for the third consecutive month to the tune of Rs.500Cr.
Going forward, while near-term consolidation in the market cannot be ruled out considering that December is generally a lackluster month on account of the festive season the world over (Christmas and New Year), the medium-to-long-term arguments for investing in Indian equities continue to remain strong.

The government draws up 25 state firms for stake sales

The government has drawn up 25 state firms for stake sales, the Financial Express newspaper reported on Wednesday.

These include Nuclear Power Corporation of India, National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD), Exim Bank of India, Punjab & Sind Bank, Indian Railways Finance Corporation and National Housing Bank, the paper said, quoting unnamed sources.

Other companies planning initial public offers include SBI Caps and SBI Fund Management, both subsidiaries of government-controlled SBI, it said.
Many of these IPOs could hit the market after the follow-on public offers of 5% each in NTPC and Rural Electrification Corporation, and a 10% stake sale in unlisted Satluj Jal Vidyut Nigam Ltd are completed in the current financial year, the paper said.

UTI Asset Management Co, Cotton Corporation of India, NTPC Electric Supply Co Ltd and HMT (International) Ltd, it said. On Tuesday, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee told parliament the government would sell up to 10% of its stake in the profit making state-run firms.

Dec 1, 2009

Institutions' Activities in November

FIIs’ activity in November:
On November 30, 2009, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net buyers to the tune of Rs.707.70 Cr in equities. They made gross purchase of Rs.2,983.90 Cr and gross sales of Rs.2,276.20 Cr.

In the month of November, FIIs were net buyers of Rs.5,317.80 Cr.

Between January 01, 2009 and October 31, 2009, FIIs remained net sellers to the tune of Rs.69,682.60 Cr.

MF’s activity in November:
Mutual funds (MFs) were net buyers to the tune of Rs.374.90 Cr in equities. They made gross purchase of Rs.917.00 Cr and gross sales of Rs.542.10 Cr.

In the month of November, MFs were net sellers of Rs.695.30 Cr.

Between January 01, 2009 and October 31, 2009, FIIs remained net sellers to the tune of Rs.2,846.90 Cr.

Disinvestment in three power PSUs

Disinvestment in three power PSUs -- NTPC, Rural Electrification Corporation and Satluj Jal Vidyut Nigam -- would be completed during the current financial year (FY10) while the process of selling stake in other profit-making PSUs is already underway. Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said in a statement in Rajya Sabha.

While in NTPC and REC, 5% stake each was being off-loaded, it’s 10% in SJVN through the capital market, he said.

This apart, the Department of Disinvestment has started dialogue with the administrative ministries and the central public sector undertakings (CPSUs) to assess their capital expenditure requirements to be raised through issue of fresh equity in case of other public sector undertakings.

Mukherjee said all CPSUs having positive net worth, no accumulated losses and having earned net profit for three preceding consecutive years, are to be listed through public offerings out of government shareholding or issue of fresh equity by the company or a combination of both. Also PSUs will comply with the new law of making atleast 10% floating equity, he added.

He said the proceeds from disinvestment would be channelised into National Investment Fund till March 2012 in select social sector programmes decided by the Planning Commission and Finance Ministry, he added.

SAIL FPO on the card

As part of its aggressive divestment agenda, the government is planning to raise about Rs.16,000 Cr via a follow-on public offer (FPO) in state-owned steel major SAIL. The FPO is expected to take place in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year.

The government will divest 10% in SAIL — from the current holding of 68% — and at the same time also issue fresh equity of up to 10%, sale proceeds of which would be used by SAIL for capital expenditure and acquisitions. The FPO is expected to get Cabinet approval by December 2009.

Among other FPOs, last month, the Ministry of Power approved Rural Electrification Corporation'
s FPO, which will divest 20% including 15% fresh equity and 5% government stake dilution.

SAIL may show good momentum in near term. So one can pick it up for the near term & also look out for trading opportunities.

Bourses Continued their upmove

The Nifty rallied further and was trading above the 5,100 mark as global cues were positive. Banking, metal, pharma, realty, telecom, power, cement and auto stocks along with Reliance Industries were witnessing buying interest.

Heavyweights like Reliance Industries, SAIL, SBI, Sterlite Industries, ICICI Bank and Bharti gained 1.7-4%.

The Sensex was trading at 17,192, up 266 points and the Nifty was at 5,119, up 88 points.
Among the broader indices, the BSE Mid-cap Index was up 1.6% and the Small-cap Index was up 2.15%. About 2,057 shares advanced while 827 shares declined on the BSE. Nearly 549 shares were unchanged.

In the large-caps, Unitech shot up 10.40%. Sun Pharma, Tata Motors, DLF, M&M and Reliance Infrastructure gained 4-6%. However, select stocks like HUL, BHEL, ITC, TCS and GAIL were the losers.

In the mid-cap space, REI Six Ten, Jet Airways, Havells India, Kingfisher Airlines and National Fertiliser were up 6-13.5% while AIA Engineering, Jain Irrigation, Allcargo Global, Simplex Infra and Shriram City lost 1.6-4.5%.

In the small-cap space, Zydus Wellness locked at 20% upper circuit. OCL Iron and Kiri Dyes Chemical rallied over 19%. KPR Mill was up 18% and Noida Toll was up 12.54%. However, Jindal Worldwide, Nirlon, PVP Ventures, MSP Steel and Rollatainers declined 3-5%.

Nov 30, 2009

Indian Economy Beats Expectations - Grows almost 8%

Belying predictions, the Indian economy grew by a significant 7.9% in the second quarter (Q2FY10) of this fiscal, up from 6.1% in the previous quarter (Q1FY10), essentially due to a good showing by the industry and the services sector.
The growth compares favorably to 7.7% recorded in the July-September quarter in the previous year. Consequently, the economy rose by 7% in the first half ending September 30 (H1FY10) of the current fiscal on the back of stimulus packages and revival of domestic demand, giving hopes that final figures for the year could be much higher.

The government, including Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee, the Reserve Bank and the Planning Commission had predicted a growth of about 6-7%, while global agencies and analysts forecast it to be even lower at rate of 6.1-6.6% in the second quarter.

The economic growth of close to 8% in the second quarter is also remarkable in the context of just 0.9% expansion in farm production due to a weak monsoon and continued contraction in exports due to slackening demand overseas.

Sector-wise Performance:

**
The manufacturing sector grew by 9.2% versus 5.1% in the corresponding period of last fiscal.
**Mining and quarrying by 9.5% versus 3.7% recorded in FY09.
**Community, social and personal services expanded by double digit at
12.7% against 9%.
**Despite being affected by international slowdown, trade, hotels, transport and communication sector grew by 8.5%, which is lower than 12.1% a year ago.
**Financing, insurance, real estate, and business services rose by
7.7% against 6.4%.
**Electricity, gas and water supply was up
7.4% compared to 3.8%.
**Construction rose by 6.5%, down over 9.6% a year ago.

It was after September, that growth declined to 5.8% in the subsequent two quarters last year. So, if the trend continues, the growth rate is expected to be much higher in the second half of this fiscal. The size of the domestic economy stood at Rs.17.90 lakh Cr (Rs.17.90 trillion) in the first half of FY10.

Nov 27, 2009

One more fund raising plan of Unitech

India’s second-largest real estate company Unitech will raise $700 million through Foreign Currency Convertible Bonds (FCCBs). The company has sought approval from the Department of Industrial Policy and Planning (DIPP) and the Reserve Bank of India to raise the fund through convertible instruments. The company has assured the government that the fund will be used for an integrated township and not for repaying existing debts.

This is the 3rd time in 1 year span that Unitech is planning to raise funds. In March 2009, the company raised $325 million (Rs.1250 Cr) at Rs.38.50 per share. After that, it has raised $900 million (Rs.4000 Cr) through two rounds of QIPs at Rs.62 per share & Rs.82 per share. Both the times company has got good response. Now, for this round let’s wait & watch. Already there is a rumor going on about Dubai Realty fiasco, which has affected markets all over the world today.

Part of these funds have been used to repay its debts. The company had a total debt of over Rs.10,000Cr. After adjusting the debts toward telecom venture, it had a residual debt of Rs.8,600Cr before the QIP placement in March 2009. Its current debt is around Rs.6,300Cr, that means the company has repaid a debt of Rs.2,300 Cr and the balance amount was used for implementing projects.

Nov 24, 2009

Top 10 Fastest Growing TMT Companies In India For Last 3 Years

Deloitte, a leading accounting, consulting and professional services firm, has announced its rankings of the 50 fastest-growing companies in the technology, media and telecom space.

Despite competitive conditions all round for industry players across India, the 50 companies on the Deloitte list have managed to achieve an average revenue growth rate of 372% over the last three years.
The Deloitte Technology Fast 50 India 2009 Program ranks the technology companies based on their percentage revenue growth over the last three financial years.
1. Tanla Solutions Ltd (Listed Company)
The overall winner is Tanla Solutions Ltd with a spectacular 2,997% growth over last three financial years. The company is a provider of integrated solutions and products for telcos in the wireless telecom sector and is also making its presence felt in providing solutions for value added services.
It has an employee base of about 500 globally and was also among the top 10 companies of Deloitte Fast 50 in 2008.

2. Enzen Global Solutions Private Ltd
In the second place, with revenue growth of 1,847% is Enzen Global Solutions Private Ltd. It is a new winner of Deloitte Fast 50, primarily engaged in the business of consulting and IT services and solutions with focus on energy and utilities sectors.
This company that has made a debut in Deloitte Tech Fast 50 awards this year, offers full range of consulting, strategy formulation and design, development and implementation services, process optimisation with value addition, focused on enhancing productivity at optimised cost.

3. Latentview Analytics Private Ltd
Latentview Analytics Private Ltd with growth rate of 987%.
This company is primarily engaged in the business of analytics, offering analytics consulting, analytics modelling and decision management services for consumer lending financial services, consumer goods, insurance and contact centres.

4. Kuliza Technologies
Founded in 2006, the Bangalore-based Kuliza Technologies, with a growth rate of 890%, is a software product development and business consulting company, focused on building business solutions, using enterprise, social networking and mobile platforms.
Kuliza partners, innovates and delivers high quality solutions that add exponential value to its customers.

5. Ocimum Biosolutions (India) Ltd
The company, which registered a growth of 663%, offers a gamut of GLP compliant services such as gene and microRNA expression profiling, SNP genotyping, copy number analysis, DMET, gene sequencing, support for clinical trials and biomarker discovery.

6. Cambridge Technology Enterprises Ltd (Listed Company)
The Hyderabad-based group with a growth rate of 662% provides software development. The group provides technology solutions for commercial customers throughout the United States and India.

7. Krawler Information Systems Pvt. Ltd.
Formed in 2005, Krawler, with 554% growth, brings together the best of enterprise and consumer software technologies to deliver the next generation business process management software for small and medium-sized enterprises.

8. Yashco Systems
The company, with 552% growth, offers IT services, product development solutions and business process outsourcing solutions to mid and large-sized organisations.

9. Novatium Solutions Pvt Ltd
Novatium Solutions Private Limited, with a growth of 446 per cent, is a technology products company, designs, develops, and markets various network computers.
Its products include netPC, a network computer designed on a hardware platform without using PC or thin client components; netTV, a device for home computing and entertainment that connects to television and computer networks; and netLCD that integrates the CPU into the LCD.
The company also offers embedded development, hardware design, and server application integration and deployment services. In addition, it offers knowledge and IP on the device, and the required head-end infrastructure.
The company was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Chennai, India.

10. One97 Communications Private Limited Software
One97, with 435% growth, is one of India's largest and most widely deployed telecom application platform company.
Every month. 200 million users perform over 2.5 billion transactions on this platform using voice, SMS and WAP applications.

BSE to roll out Websites in regional languages

Leading bourse Bombay Stock Exchange will soon roll out websites in many regional languages including Marathi, Tamil and Punjabi, a senior official said on Tuesday.
"At present we have websites in Hindi, English and Gujarati. We will create more in Marathi, Tamil, Telegu and Punjabi," the official said without wanting to be named.

Trading in mutual fund units

Trading in mutual fund units is expected to start within 10 to 15 days, Securities and Exchange Board of India Chairman CB Bhave has said.

Recently, SEBI permitted brokers to use stock exchange terminals to buy or sell MF products. The move is aimed at increase the reach of MF products. He also spoke on the efforts the regulator was making to bring further transparency in the mutual fund industry.

Once the trading starts, MF products will become more popular with public as it will avoid hassles of prcessing, it will make their investments liquid & we will see more money coming into the markets. This will help push up the stock prices due to high liquidity. So the market is now in a mode of BUY on EVERY DIPS.

Nov 19, 2009

Nifty can test 5300-5400 levels by year end

There is a high chance of Nifty surging towards 5300-5400 levels by year end. The downside could be limited to 4800 levels for short terms. Mostly December month sees euphoric activities in Indian stock markets as the operators get a free hand due to the absence of FIIs. So beware of those operator driven stocks & instead invest in quality stocks. Stay away from CIRCUIT Stocks.

Nov 17, 2009

BUY - Airline Stocks for short term

Airline stocks will be in focus today as the long pending proposal of hiking foreign direct investment (FDI) in aviation will come up for discussion by the Committee of Secretaries.
Currently, the government allows about 49% in FDI in aviation sector. It has also barred foreign airlines from holding any stake either directly or indirectly in domestic carriers. The proposal is to hike this FDI limit to about 74% and to allow foreign carriers to have stake either directly or indirectly into the domestic carriers. This will rerate the already beaten down Airline stocks. Buy them now with strict stoplosses for the short term as of now.
Jet Airways, Kingfisher Airlines, Spice Jet

RIL AGM Agenda

Reliance Industries will conduct its annual general meeting (AGM) today. The meeting would include the company's business outlook, indications of international strategy and Mukesh Ambani’s comments on the KG-D6 gas dispute.
There are three main things to watch out for.

1) One is the business outlook and his take on the refining in the petrochemical businesses. It could be a reiteration of what was mentioned in the annual report. He had said that the global economy is showing signs of revival. The structural drivers of demand, however, could continue to show a considerable change. The refining business’ profitability could be volatile. There could be periods of supply tightness or oversupply in regional markets. Demand for gasoline could even slow down from current levels. On the petrochemical side, they said, the industry is likely to witness low operating rates in the next 18-24 months. This would be the business outlook.

2) The market will be watching out for the mention of an international strategy. It could be a broad outlining of what they are planning to do on the international front.

3) On the gas tussle, it is too premature for them to go out and make the formal announcement on the acquisition. So we would not hear names on what they are probably going to acquire. However, it could be a broad outlining of what they are looking at. Hence, expectations are low that they could come out and say anything on that.

Nov 16, 2009

The global construction market is expected to soar to a size of $12.7 trillion by 2020

According to a report by consultancy RICS Global Construction Perspectives and economic forecasting firm Oxford Economics, the global construction market would be worth an estimated $12.7 trillion in 2020 from about $7.5 trillion at present.
"Construction in major emerging markets such as India and China will see much higher levels of growth than developed countries by 2020. Growth in construction output in India will accelerate faster than in China up to 2020, but we expect growth in GDP to be higher in China," the Global Construction 2020 report stated.
It expects construction output to grow by more than 3 times in emerging markets compared to developed ones by the next decade. "The predicted sharp rise in construction levels will be a reflection of strength of markets in emerging economies such as India, Brazil and China, who are set to double output over the next decade," RICS Chief Economist Simon Rubinsohn.

RICS, an independent professional body, leads the world when it comes to professional standards in land, property and construction.

Aban Offshore's QIP

Aban Offshore's qualified institutional placement (QIP) which opened on Friday will close today. The company is looking to raise a maximum of Rs.1,000Cr, sources indicate that an equity dilution of nearly 13% pre-issue capital is likely. Most of the capital will be used to pay off the debt.

Aban had made an announcement on Friday saying that the QIP book is open at a price of about Rs.1224.28, which is about Rs.12 discount to the Friday’s closing price of Rs.1236.

The preliminary placement document says that
- 17 of their 20 rigs are under contract as on September 30.
- The total outstanding debt as on March 31 was about Rs.16,635Cr.
- The substantial portion of the cash flow and the money raised from the issue is likely to go into a repayment of debt.
- The total contract drilling services backlog is about 2.371 billion as on Sept 30.
- The management indicates that their contracts will suffice to pay the debt.

It is oversubscribed and the company has successfully raised about USD 150 million.

Oct 29, 2009

Birla Corp - Dark Horse

Equity Share Capital - 77 Cr
No. of equity shares – 7,70,05,347
Promoter holding – 62.90%
Institutions – 27.85%
General Public – 9.03%

Market Cap – Rs.2309 Cr
Book Value – Rs.166
Free Reserves per share – Rs.155
Reserves – Rs.1202 Cr
EPS (Rs) – Rs.42.01

52 week high/low – Rs.330/Rs.73.05
CMP – Rs.299

Birla Corporation Ltd (BCL), a part of M P Birla Group Company having an installed capacity of 5.8MNTPA of cement which is witnessing strong demand from the Northern and Western region. Birla Corp has 4 plants across India located in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, West Bengal & Maharshtra.

Capacity Expansion:
Birla Corp has recently enhanced its clinker capacity in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh taking up the total capacity to 7.5MNTPA. Birla Corp has also lined up a capex of Rs.8 bn to be completed in next 2 years to build 1.2 MNTPA brown-field plant at Chanderia, Rajasthan along with 30 MW captive thermal power plants. The funding for the said capex is to be met through internal accruals and debt.

Revenue Growth led by both Price & Volume expansion:
Birla Corp has been witnessing more than 90% capacity utilization on the back of buoyant demand from ongoing construction activity for Commonwealth Games 2010 in the Northern region.
In Q1FY10 its top line jumped by 24% on Y-o-Y basis led by both higher realization along with volume growth. I expect the surge in the Infrastructure & real estate activity, which would further boost the revenue growth in the coming period in the run-up to Commonwealth games. Due to this, it is estimated that the EPS will grow from Rs.42 for FY09 to Rs.62 for FY10 which is almost 50% hike. The price could move in tandem with this EPS as well.

Huge Hidden Margin of Safety in Liquid Investments:
Birla Corp carries Rs.770 Cr (comes to around Rs.100/ per share) in its books in the form of Cash & Cash equivalent. Birla Corp has an investment portfolio valued at Rs.820 Cr of which nearly Rs.450 Cr are parked in Liquid MF investments & Bank deposits of Rs.320 Cr were as debt stands at just Rs.270Cr.
Further, as per consensus estimates, Birla Corp is estimated to record PAT of Rs.4780 Cr in FY10E earnings, translating into Rs.62/ per share. Thus, net cash to the tune of Rs.162 / per share provides huge margin of safety to the tune of 50% of Market Price.

Valuation:
At the CMP of Rs.300, Birla Corp is trading with an EPS of Rs.62 and Rs.57 with PE Multiple of 4.8x and 5.2x on FY10E and FY11E earnings consensus respectively.
On a Valuation methodology of EV / EBIDTA, Birla Corp is fairly undervalued at 5x and 3x on FY10E and FY11E earnings respectively.
On EV/Ton basis, Birla Corp is trading at US $ 45/ ton which is significantly lower than replacement cost of US $ 100 / ton.

Financials Snapshot:

For Q2FY09-10, its sales is Rs.560.67 Cr (433.81 Cr yoy) & Net profit of Rs.152.05 Cr (Rs.59.7Cr), giving an EPS of Rs.19.74.

FY10E:
Net Sales - Rs20,10Cr (+12.25% 0ver FY09)
EBIDTA - Rs5,82.9Cr (+29.0% over FY09)
PAT – Rs478.3Cr (+23.8% over FY09)
EPS – Rs.62.1; PE(x) - 4.83
EV/EBITDA(x) - 3.8
ROCE(%) - 28.2
ROE(%) - 32.4

FY11E:
Net Sales - Rs20,75Cr (+3.23% over FY10)
EBIDTA - Rs5,60Cr (+27%)
PAT – Rs442Cr (+21.3%)
EPS – Rs57.4; PE(x) - 5.23
EV/EBITDA(x) - 4.2
ROCE(%) - 21.5
ROE(%) - 22.7

The industry P/E is around 11, whereas Birla Corp is available at P/E of 4.83 for FY10E earnings. So at the P/E of 11, its market price should be around Rs.680. However, on the conservative basis, we can have a target of around Rs.490 with P/E of 8. Looking at the strong pedigree of promoters (Birlas) & the cash of Rs.162 / per share on its books makes it potential multi-bagger for the medium to long term. Hence, I recommend a “BUY” with a medium-long term view.

Oct 28, 2009

IIP Data for Sep-09

India's key infrastructure industries rose by 4%in September on the back of improved performance of coal, electricity and cement sectors.
The six infrastructure industries, which account for a quarter of the nation's industrial production, had grown at the same rate a year ago, according to the data released by the government today.

While coal, electricity and cement sectors showed impressive growth, crude oil output continued to be a dampener falling for the ninth time in past 10 months.
Crude oil production at 2.77 million tonnes was down 0.5% in September, refineries produced 3.4% more fuel at 12.59 million tonnes.
Electricity generation soared 7.5% and coal and cement production were up 6.5% each, while finished steel was down 0.4%.
The index for the six key industries rose to 246.7 in September from 237.2 a year earlier, the data said.

During April-September period, the six infrastructure sectors rose 5%, better than 3.4%in the year ago period.
Crude oil and refinery production logged negative growths at 1.2 and 3.6%, respectively, Coal output was up 11.6%and cement soared by 12.3%. Electricity generation was up 6.8%.

High Oil Prices

Crude oil prices have more than doubled from $32 per barrel (their 52-week low levels) to almost $80 per barrel.

  • If the price of crude oil continues to increase and if the government decides to pass on the additional cost to consumers, it is expected to lead to an increase in inflation at a much faster pace compared to the anticipated level of 6% by March 2010.
  • If the price increase is not passed on and the government bears the hike in the price of crude oil, then the fiscal deficit situation is expected to worsen further from the budgeted 6.8%. If the fiscal deficit figure, which is closely monitored by investors, rises beyond an extent then it can negatively impact the broader markets.

This could reduce the pace of growth of Indian economy. The silverlining will be high government spending & domestic demand.This can impact on the margins of companies in various sectors.

The worst hit would be companies that rely on petro products either as feedstock or for meeting their energy needs. The list includes companies in sectors as diverse as tyres, cement, fertilisers & chemicals, synthetic textile etc.

  • Some of the leading firms that will be affected in the tyre industry include Apollo Tyres, MRF, Ceat and JK Tyre, among others.
  • Among fertiliser companies, Chambal Fertilisers, Zuari, RCF and Nagarjuna Fertilisers will take the maximum hit.
  • In the textile sector, the impact would be felt by companies like Century Enka, Vardhman Textile, Garware Wall-ropes and RSWM, among others.
  • With its fortunes directly linked to international prices of aviation turbine fuel (ATF), stocks of Deccan Aviation, Jet Airways and Spice Jet could be another casualty of rising oil prices.

But some sectors & companies will benefit from high oil prices.

  • The companies involved in productions of oil like ONGC, Reliance Industries and Cairn India, OIL will be benefitted.
  • Some other sectors that would be positively impacted because of high crude prices are offshore services providers Great Offshore, Aban Offshore, Garware Offshore and ancillaries like Selan Exploration and Shiv Vani Oil.
  • Shipping companies Varun Shipping, Shipping Corporation of India, GE Shipping and Essar Shipping, which carry crude, are also likely to benefit as demand will be higher.

Oct 27, 2009

Mahindra-Satyam Merger News

The Mahindra group, the new owner of Satyam Computers and the largest shareholder in Tech Mahindra, is set to merge the two companies after June 2010. This will transform the combined entity into an Indian Information and Communication technology powerhouse.
The merger of Satyam and Tech Mahindra can happen after Satyam’s accounts are re-stated. The Company Law Board (CLB) has given time till June 30 2010 to complete the restatement of accounts. Global audit firm KPMG is re-stating Satyam’s past accounts to reflect the true financial health of the firm. Both companies have a lot of synergy and the combined entity will fuel business growth.

As per the estimates, together, both entities could have revenues of around $2.2 billion i.e. around Rs.10,500 Cr which is more than double the FY09 revenues of Techmahindra, Rs.4357 Cr. This will push up the Techmahindra’s share price from current levels of Rs.940 or so. I would recommend accumulating the stock. Also read Tech Mahindra to be benefitted from Satyam acquisition & other postings.

Mahindra Satyam’s operating margins are on the rise as cost-cutting measures are starting to bear fruit. They have cut costs by rationalizing workforce and saving on-lease rentals on commercial space.

Satyam Computers was ranked the country’s fourth-largest IT exporter before the scam broke out and TechM is the country’s sixth-largest IT exporter. With most of their services being in complimentary areas, While TechM is focused on offering services to the telecom industry and Mahindra Satyam has broad capabilities across a number of industries, including financial services and manufacturing. Thus, Tech Mahindra will benefit from the merger as the single dimensional telecom company will be able to expand its client base. Once Tech Mahindra has access to Satyam’s clients, the companies can provide a range of services in various verticals.
Under the Mahindra umbrella, regaining lost clients will not be a mammoth task. Satyam’s revenue could be around $1.2 billion, going forward. Also Satyam was in advanced stages of talks with the UK mobile payments services provider Upaid for a settlement. The overall market signals for the IT services sector is positive now and the company is seeing more traction in the BPO segment.

RBI Monetary Policy:

RBI Monetary Policy:
RBI has kept key rates like repo or reverse repo unchanged. Repo and reverse repo are rates at which the RBI lends to banks and vice versa.

It has hiked the statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) to 25% from 24%.
SLR is the minimum amount of cash, gold or bonds banks need to maintain with themselves. By hiking the SLR, the RBI may be signalling its leaning towards tightening the accommodative monetary policy.

The cash reserve ratio (CRR) is kept unchanged. CRR is the minimum amount banks need to park with the RBI, was also left unchanged.

Banking sector would not be affected directly.

Inflation target upped:
While the excess liquidity in the system may have succeeded in turning the economy back on the recovery track, it could be met with its first after-effect in the form of rising inflation soon. In fact, in the mid-term review, the RBI increased its March-end wholesale price index (WPI) inflation estimate to 6.5% with an upward bias, revised from its earlier target of 5%.
The estimate for FY10 gross domestic product (GDP) growth was left unchanged at 6.0% with an upward bias.
Also, the central bank cut its FY10 credit growth target to 18% from 20% that it had set in the July monetary policy review.

Realty loans tougher:
RBI has increased the provisioning requirement for advances to the commercial real estate sector classified as ‘standard assets’ from the present level of 0.40% to 1%, a move that makes lending to the sector tougher.
The RBI upping the provision for lending to real estate will affect affordable housing, realty projects, HDIL said. “We will have to up prices to nullify the RBI hike”.
Realty sector might see correction.

RBI view:
“There has been a discernible improvement in the global economic outlook since the First Quarter Review in July 2009,” RBI Governor Duvvuri Subbarao said, in his review statement. “In India too, there are definitive indications of the economy reverting to the growth track. Accordingly, attention around the world, as also in India, has shifted from managing the crisis to managing the recovery.”
Subbarao admitted that India faced a unique dilemma that developed nations did not face — that of inflation: “First, most of these countries do not face an immediate risk of inflation. Indeed, in several advanced economies, the concerns were about a possible deflation, which are just about waning. On the other hand, India is actively confronted with an upturn in inflation.”

He added that around the world, timing an exit from the stimulus packages was a central issue in our policy matrix. As the RBI has indicated in several public statements, our current monetary stance is not the steady state and we need to reverse the expansionary stance. This could mean that RBI may hike CRR in Dec09.
Also the hike in SLR would support the large borrowing programme of the Centre and states. This could augur well for infrastructure projects (companies).

Oct 16, 2009

Picks for the Samvat 2066 - Potential Multibaggers

My picks for the Samvat 2066 are as below.

1) Bartronics India Ltd (BIL)
2) Birla Corporation Ltd (BCL)
3) Arvind Mills
4) Core Projects & Technologies
5) LIC HFL
6) Unitech Ltd.
7) Cairn India Ltd.
8) Biocon
9) Axis Bank
10) Godrej Industries

I have already written about some companies. In near time I will write about the remaining ones. These are the potential multibagger. Also there are lot of companies which have great plans & prospects going forward. I have not considered any index scrip (Sensex or Nifty) as they are always good ones & you get all the news about them all the time.

Excellent performance from TCS

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) has come out with good numbers for Q2FY10. Revenue was up 3.16% Q-o-Q to Rs.7435Cr & reported a 28.7% rise in net profit to Rs.1,624Cr ($351 million) from Rs.1,262Cr reported a year ago under US accounting rules. Profit under the Indian accounting standards was Rs.1,642 Cr, beating estimates, as it won more outsourcing deals, cut costs and pressure on fees eased.
TCS has declared an interim dividend of Rs.2 per share.

TCS plans to add 8,000 employees next quarter. The gross employee addition in Q2 was 5,530 with net additions of 320 and the employee attrition for Q2 stands at 11.4%.

What analysts say about Samvat 2065?

Investment Guru Rakesh Jhunjhunwala sees the Nifty trading in a 4,200-4,000 to 5,800-6,200 range next year andthat breaking 6,100-6,200 on the Nifty and holding on to it is not going to be an easy task. If you price in 2011-12 index earnings, which you would do by December 2010, then it could break 6100. He sees the markets trending upwards correction won’t come easily.

Samir Arora, Fund Manager, Helios Capital, says the new highs, if reached, will not be sustained in the next 5-6 months.

Ramesh Damani, Member, BSE, says the Bull Run in markets is still on. From October to March or earlier was just a break in a bull market.
The theory working in America now is that the falling dollar equals to a higher Dow. At some point it will stop, one cannot debase a currency and expect the market to keep going up.
He advises investors to buy gold as it provides a safe haven if there is a global turmoil. The long-term trend lines are still intact, but global turmoil will hit the Indian market.

A number of market experts have been saying that the markets are currently overvalued and ripe for a correction.

Oct 15, 2009

Equities gave better returns than Bullions

During Samvat 2065, equities gave returns of almost 100%, Silver 73% & Gold 34%. During Samvat 2064, Sensex gave negative returns of 55%, silver too remained in the negative territory with minus 20% returns but Gold yielded positive returns of 20%.
despite stock market experiencing high volatility during the year, Sensex was able to give maximum returns on investments. The Samvat 2065 opened with a positive note with markets rising by 5% on Muhurat Trading last year. Thereafter, markets showed a positive recovery from November 2008 to the start of January 2009. However, the markets dipped from January to March. It was after a gap of eight months that FIIs registered a positive inflow of Rs.1,600Cr in December 2008. But during January-March 2009, the markets witnessed a negative inflow and made its bottom. Since then, the markets have seen a sharp recovery and yielded almost 100% returns as per Monday’s closing level. FIIs have pumped in more then $13 billion in the Indian equities since then.
The next 2 years will be even better than what we have seen upto now. I would suggest that atleast 60% of savings should go to equities. However, follow some golden rules of stock markets. Also Read - Why is the Equity Investment best option for wealth creation?

Snapshot - Deccan Gold Mines Ltd.

I have already written about this stock sometime in Dec-08, you can get more details about the companies from that posting. (Also read Stock that can prove to be El Dorado ; India - Gold Rich Country - El dorado )

Snapshot:

Deccan Gold Mines Limited is the first private sector gold mining company and rather the only gold mining company listed on the Indian stock exchanges. The company has got blocks spread across four states. The total area of the blocks is more than 10,000 sq kilometers. Gold mining company has to pass through three stages before they can commercially start mining gold.

*The first stage is called reconnaissance permit where they seek the approval of the authorities to do exploratory activities on say 200-300 sq kilometer of the block.
*Second stage is prospecting license wherein they short list about 25 sq kilometer or 30 sq kilometer out of the total area where they would like to do the further exploratory studies.
*The third stage is called mining lease where in they short list about half a sq kilometer or one sq kilometer where they would actually like to drill and take gold out or rather rock out and then refine it and produce gold.

The company has filed application for about six blocks for mining license. As per the management the actual mining of the company is expected to start in the last quarter of FY10-11 which is January to March of FY11 and if you look at the valuations of this company as of now the company has got zero revenues.

The management has been saying that they are able to derive about 4 tonne of gold per annum, even assuming on a conservative basis that they are able to derive only 2 tonne and taking a price of about Rs.15,000 per ten grams, this would translate into revenues of about Rs.300Cr.

Typically internationally, the gold exploration cost is about USD 350-400 per ounce which in this case will translate into Rs.5000-5500 per ten grams (1/3 of the sale price). Assuming initial expenses to be high we still believe that on a conservative basis the operating profit of the company could be in the region of 40-50%. This means, on a revenue of about Rs.300Cr, the company can generate operating profit of Rs.120-150Cr, whereas the market-cap is only Rs.200Cr.

The valuation is low mainly because of two reasons.

One is the uncertainties involved in the business and also the uncertainties with regard to the regulatory clearances for this company.

The second relates to the psychology of the investor. Most people do not want to buy these companies now when the production is still one, one and a half years away. Everybody thinks that they are going to buy the company as soon as the company is going to start production but people will realize that smart money would already have accumulated the stock at lower levels.

I would advise to start accumulating this stock at this point of time. But I would like to say that this stock is for a very high risk investor because of the uncertainties involved in the business and also somebody with a time frame of about 3-5 years.

Oct 14, 2009

Excellent results from HDFC Bank

HDFC Bank has posted excellent numbers, which are also above expectations, for Q2FY10. Its Q2 net profit surged 30.21% to Rs.687.5 Cr from Rs.528 Cr on year-on-year basis.
NII (net interest income) was up 4.8% at Rs.1,955.8Cr versus Rs.1,866.4 Cr (YoY). Other income rose 56.65% to Rs.1,007.4 Cr from Rs.643.1 Cr.

Closing at 17-month high

The market maintained its uptrend for the second consecutive day and closed at 17-month high.
The Nifty closed above the 5,100 mark and the Sensex ended above the 17,200 level, for the first time since May 21, 2008. Today's rally was mainly led by metal, auto, infrastructure, realty and banking stocks. However, huge selling was seen in telecom, oil marketing and airline companies' shares.

Global cues remained supportive throughout the session. European markets went up nearly 2% and the US index futures gained over 1% each, at the time of writing this report. Asian markets also ended higher; Hang-Sang rose nearly 2%. Shanghai, Straits Times, Kospi, Taiwan Weighted and Jakarta Composite moved up 1.2-1.6%. Nikkei was flat.

Oct 12, 2009

2 Reasons for gains in the market

Today our markets ended up with handsome gains amidst volitility. The sensex rose by 384 points 2.31%) & Nifty rose by 110 points (2.21%). Sensex has closed above 17k & Nifty above 5k. This was mainly due to the two reasons: news of Truce between Ambani Brothers & positive IIP data.

India's industrial output grew at its fastest pace in 22 months in August as factories cranked out more big-ticket household goods and cars as stimulus spending drove demand, but economists said the Reserve Bank was unlikely to lift interest rates at its review later this month.
Industry production grew by 10.4% in August against just 1.7% in the same month a year ago, as manufacturing, mining and electricity sectors recorded double digit growth. The industrial upsurge may make up for likely decline in farm production, hit by weak monsoon. These data has beaten the median forecast in a Reuters poll. Also July's annual growth was revised up to 7.2 percent from 6.8% earlier.

From the IIP data declared today for Aug-09, it seems that the recovery is around the corner. This clearly shows that the Q3 & Q4 earnings will be better than expected and we might see the upsurge in the buying from DIIs & FIIs both. Also the retail participation will increase to an extent.

But still many analysts are cautious about the exuberance showed by Indian bourses.

Oct 9, 2009

Infy Beats Expectations - Announces RS.10 as dividend

Infosys Technologies has announced its Q2FY10 numbers. Its bottom-line was above the street expectations while revenues were in line with estimates.

Its net profit went up 0.85% to Rs1,540Cr versus Rs1,527Cr in previous quarter.
Its revenues were up 2.06% to Rs5,585Cr from Rs5,472Cr on quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) basis. CNBC-TV18 had estimated net profit at Rs1,509.4Cr and revenues at Rs5,604.3Cr.

It reported operating profit was at Rs1,933Cr and its operating margins improved a bit to 34.6% versus 34.1%.

*BFSI (Banking, Financial Services and Insurance) revenues inched up 3.5% to Rs 1,871Cr versus Rs1,807Cr on QoQ basis.
*Telecom Segment revenues went up 7.6% to Rs992Cr versus Rs 922Cr (Q-o-Q).
*Manufacturing revenues went down at Rs 1,080Cr versus Rs1,090Cr.

The company declared a dividend of Rs 10 per share.
Mangement said:
  • that 35 new clients are added this quarter & revenues from the top-10 clients was up 6%.
  • it added one new $100 million plus client, 2 new $50 million plus clients and two 2 new $40 million clients.
  • the salary hikes would impact the margins by 2%. According to them, the customers have started spending money.
  • they are cautious on business due to Rupee volatility & weak dollar.
  • that prices have become stable & that the clients are not asking for the renegotiation; however the upside in the prices will take some more time.

Guidance:
For Q3, it is expecting revenues of Rs5,429-5,476Cr and EPS (earning per share of Rs 23.35-23.56.

For FY10, in dollar term, Infosys expects to report EPS of $ 2.09-2.10 per share versus previous guidance of $ 1.97-2 and revenues of $ 4.60-4.62 billion versus previous guidance of $ 4.45-4.52 billion. Infosys raised FY10 dollar EPS guidance by 5-6%. The company said FY10 guidance was based on forex rate of Rs 47/$.

In rupee term, it is expecting revenues of Rs 21,961-22,055 Cr and EPS of Rs 99.60-100.

Growth by Geography (for Q2 over Q1 in %)

North America - 65.9 (64.7)
Europe - 23.2 (24.7)
India - 1.2 (0.9)
Rest of World - 9.7 (9.7)

Growth by Industry (for Q2 over Q1 in %)

BFSI - 33.5 (33); Manufacturing - 19.3 (20.5); Retail - 14.1 (13.2); Telecom - 16.2 (16.9);

Oct 8, 2009

Short Term Buy Calls

Buy Vishal Info at current levels of Rs.17-18 with the targets of Rs.23-25. It is expected to post better Q2FY10 numbers compared to Q2FY09. It is currently trading at PE of 18.
Buy NIIT Ltd. at current levels for the target of Rs.85 for this month. Keep a stoploss of Rs. 69.

Oct 7, 2009

Will RIL bonus announcement take the markets higher?

The results for the Year ended March 31, 2009:
The Company has posted a net profit for the period from ordinary activities of Rs.15,637Cr for the year ended March 31, 2009 as compared to Rs.15,261Cr for the year ended March 31, 2008.

Total Income has increased from Rs.1,34,338Cr for the year ended March 31, 2008 to Rs.1,43,907Cr for the year ended March 31, 2009.
The Audited consolidated results for the Year ended March 31, 2009:
The Group has posted a net profit for the period from ordinary activities of Rs.15,296Cr for the year ended March 31, 2009 as compared to Rs15,324Cr for the year ended March 31, 2008.

Total Income has increased from Rs.1,38,371Cr for the year ended March 31, 2008 to Rs1,53,138Cr for the year ended March 31, 2009.

RIL board has recommended bonus in the ratio of 1:1, subject to the approval of the shareholders. Also RIL has announced dividend of Rs.13 per share.

Earlier, RIL has rewarded its shareholders 3 times with bonus issues.
1997 – 1:1
1983 – 3:5
1980 – 3:5

So market may react positively to this news & we can see buying interest in Oil & Gas sector and other RIL associated companies.

Oct 5, 2009

CHI Investments - Multibagger

CHI Investments, one of the investment companies of RPG Group, might offer multiple returns in the future. CHI is a debt free company with huge investments in other RPG Group companies from which it derives income in the form of dividend. Unlocking of the investments will create huge value for CHI shareholders.

Equity Share Capital - 11.46 Cr
No. of equity shares – 1,14,64,508
Promoter holding – 43.51%
Institutions/Corporates – 23.84%
General Public – 32.63%

Market Cap – Rs. 63.02 Cr
Book Value – Rs. 115
Reserves – Rs. 122.96 Cr
EPS (Rs) – Rs. 2.7

52 week high/low – Rs. 68 /Rs. 8.81
CMP – Rs. 54.80

For FY-09, total revenue was Rs 5.21 Cr & Net Profit Rs. 3.1 Cr, thus posting an EPS of Rs.2.7. CHI has posted good results for Q1FY10 with total revenue of Rs.2.86 Cr (2.11 Cr) & Net Profit Rs.2.59 Cr (Rs. 1.98 Cr) which brings EPS to 2.26.

Investments in quoted equity shares – Rs. 388 Cr
Total Debt – Nil
Investment Value per share – Rs. 340

Investment Rationale:
*CHI holds investments worth Rs.388.00 Cr in listed group companies as on 30th June, 2009 while its own market cap is just Rs. 63 Cr. The company is debt free.

*Apart from this, CHI also has investments in other non-listed group companies.

*Compared to other investment/holding companies, CHI is available at just 1/4th of the value of investments it holds i.e. around 67% discount to its investment values. Other investment companies trade at about 1/4th of the value of investments they hold.

*The company majority holds shares of CESC & KEC International, which being in power sector and leaders in their business areas are expected to do well. This will create value for the company.
*CHI Investment receives almost Rs.4-5 Cr as dividend/interest income annually.

Below is given the investment details of CHI.

No. of shares held x CMP = Value of investment

1) CESC: 20,56,948 x Rs.380 = Rs.78,16,40,240
Div. income: Rs.4 around Rs.82 lacs

2) KEC International: 41,42,519 x Rs.558 = Rs.231,15,25,602
Div. income: Rs.5 around Rs.2.73 Cr

3) RPG Cables: 22,00,280 x Rs.23.10 = Rs.5,08,26,468
Div. income: Nil

4) Zensar Technologies: 22,22,138 x Rs.232 = Rs.51,55,36,016
Div. income: Rs.4.50 around Rs.1 Cr

5) Saregama: 2,53,444 x Rs.80 = Rs.2,02,75,520
Div. income: Nil

6) RPG Life sciences: 10,64,560 x Rs.48 = Rs.5,10,98,880
Div. income: Rs.1.20 around Rs.12 lacs

7) Harrison Malayalam: 7,28,150 x Rs.124 = Rs.9,02,90,600
Div. income: Rs.1.50 around Rs.11 lac

8) CFL Capital: 38,37,500 x Rs. 4.10 = Rs.1,57,33,750
Div. income: Nil

9) Summit Securities: 31,28,298 x Rs.16 = Rs.5,00,52,768
Div. income: Nil

Total investment value: Rs.388 Cr
Total Div. income: Rs.4.75 Cr for FY08-09
Apart from this, CHI also has investments in many other unlisted companies.
Risk:
Being just a holding company, one has to remember that the investments might not be liquidated for lifetime. Hence it is not right to think that the holding company can be valued equal to the value of investment it holds until and less value unlocking is possible. Having stated this risk, I feel 90% discount is on the much higher side.

Sep 25, 2009

Mahindra Satyam - Getting new lease of life

GE has extended its multi-million dollar contract with Mahindra Satyam, by three years from January 2010. It will cater to application development and engineering services. The contract will contain ERP implementation, application support and development and they have added engineering services and BPO services.
Target for Satyam is Rs. 150.

Sep 16, 2009

IPO Insight - Pipavav Shipyard

Pipavav Shipyard is coming out with an initial public offering (IPO) of 8,54,50,225 equity shares of Rs 10 each. It will raise nearly Rs 513 Cr at higher end of the price band Rs 55-60 per equity share. The issue will open for subscription on September 16 and close on September 18, 2009.

Up to 600,000 equity shares will be reserved for employees and rest of the shares for the public. The net issue will constitute 12.74% of the post-issue equity share capital of the company. Promoters (SKIL, Grevek Investments and Punj Lloyd) will hold 39.56% stake post issue.
Apart from general corporate expenses, the company intends to utilise proceeds for construction of facilities for shipbuilding, ship repair and the Offshore Business (Rs 179.27 Cr) and as a margin for working capital (Rs 244.04 Cr).
Credit Analysis and Research Limited (CARE) has assigned an IPO Grade 3 to the issue, indicating average fundamentals. Book running lead managers to the issue are Citigroup Global Markets India Pvt Ltd, Enam Securities Pvt Ltd, JM Financial Consultants Pvt Ltd, SBI Capital Markets Ltd, Kotak Mahindra Capital Company Ltd and Motilal Oswal Investment Advisors Pvt Ltd. Karvy Computershare Pvt Ltd is the registrar.

The company has second largest dock in the world, after Hyundai, with the company having 782 acres of land, of which 498 acres have been developed, with 662 meters in length and 65 meters in the width of dry dock, with waterfront length of 4.2 kms.

Presently, 85% of the country’s Defence needs are met from countries like Russia, France, Germany, UK and Italy, as world class facilities are not available, with Mazgaon Dock, Goa Shipyard and Kolkatta Dock, presently catering to Indian Navy and Ministry of Defence. So, the company would be focusing on Navy, ONGC and global jobs, which has much higher margins, then the conventional ones.

The total facilities and cost of the project is estimated at Rs 2,995 Cr, which is being financed by the term loan of Rs 1,312 Cr, present net worth of Rs 1,260 Cr and proposed IPO of Rs 500 Cr. This results in a debt equity ratio of 0.75:1 which can be considered quite reasonable and within the comfort levels. To replicate the similar facilities, it would take at least 5 years, including obtaining all permissions, which would give a first mover advantage to the company.

In comparison to Bharati and ABG Shipyard, all the operating ratios are little bit scaled up (high). But that doesn’t take away the merit of this company because this company appears to be a good company over a period of time.

Angel Broking View:
Notwithstanding good Industry growth prospects, the IPO ALREADY factors in the company’s strong Order inflow, potential extension of the government subsidy and timely execution. Global market leader, Hyundai Heavy Industries, is trading at 1.5x CY2010E P/BV, while in case of Pipavav, even at the lower price band, it would trade at 1.8x FY2011E P/BV, which is expensive. The IPO is also expensive compared to the company’s domestic peers, ABG and Bharati Shipyard, which have a diversified Order Book with strong Revenue and Operating visibility over the next two-three years and higher Return Ratios. Thus, considering that the IPO is at premium valuations.

SPA Securities View:
The company has a strong order book, but majority of its revenue will be received in FY 11. The estimated revenue in FY 11 is to be around Rs 35,000 million. PSL is available at a P/E of 8.6x and 9.3x at lower band & upper band respectively of its FY 11 estimated EPS of Rs. Rs.6.43. Looking at the FY 11 P/E multiple, there is not much upside potential in the short term. However, the revenues from the defence sector is not factored in since the company is yet to win orders which can generate substantial revenue.
Chairman Nikhil Gandhi, in an interview to CNBC-TV18, said the company’s valuations were justified and said the company was eyeing opportunities to build assets for the defence sector. He added that It is on the contrary because we have kept the price much lower. We have done the pre-IPO at Rs 80 and company has become operational since April 2009 and for an operational company this is a very good price because we are quite conscious of the issue that this is the first IPO of the group and we want to make sure that unless investors make lots of money, like the private equity investors who are making tonnes of money – the financial institutions 600% return – if the IPO price was high, they would have sold and gone. But they have not sold. This demonstrates that the price is very attractive and there is a lot of confidence in the management and the company’s potential.

Sep 15, 2009

Godrej Properties

Adi Godrej, Godrej group Chairman said Godrej Properties' (GPL) initial public offering (IPO) would be launched in 3 months. The market regulator SEBI (Securities & Exchange Board of India) has cleared GPL's draft red herring prospectus (DRHP).

The company will offer 3.5% stake in pre-IPO placement and to offer 10% stake via IPO. As per the DRHP filed in 2008, IPO proceeds will be used for acquisition of land development rights for forthcoming projects, construction of forthcoming projects and repayment of loans.ICICI Securities and Kotak Mahindra are bankers to the issue. Godrej Industries currently holds 80.3% in GPL.

Real estate developers are optimistic about a turnaround in the downturn. While the listed companies were the first to raise funds through QIPs, it's time for the unlisted ones. Godrej Properties IPO will come out within the next three months while Oberoi Constructions IPO will be here by early next year. And the main reason for fund raising is future growth plans. For Godrej, affordable housing is one of the focus areas.

Said Adi Godrej, Chairman, Godrej Group, “We have announced projects in Ahmedabad, Calcutta, suburbs of Mumbai and we will announce more. To my mind all the conditions for affordable housing to succeed in India have come into place for the first time.”

The share of the Real estate in the total revenues of Godrej Ind was to the tune of Rs. 7 Cr & profits of Rs. 5 Cr for Q1FY10. For the entire year FY08-09, revenue contribution was Rs. 31 Cr & profit was Rs. 21 Cr.
Godrej Ind. Holds around 83% stake in Godrej property. Godrej Property has landbank of around 450 acres (around 20 million sq ft) in various parts of the country. Interestingly, major portion of the land is in city area. So even if you take an average of Rs. 2000 per sq ft rate, the valuation comes to around whopping Rs. 4000 Crore. Whereas market cap of Godrej Ind is Rs. 4100 Crore. Apart from real estate business, the company is having interest in many other businesses & group companies. Also promoter of the company, Mr. Adi Godrej (who holds 78% in Godrej Ind) has announced buyback upto Rs. 275 per share, aggregating around Rs. 100 Cr. This shows the confidence of the promoter in the company.

All these factors taken into account, I see Godrej Ind as a multibagger & recommend to buy on every dip.

Sep 11, 2009

Group holding companies hold promising future

While the Stock markets are soaring and the investors are wondering at the pricey valuations of leading companies, one will be surprised to know that there are some companies trading substantially below their fair value. These companies are known as holding companies which are created to promote or control other operating group companies. You don't need to indulge into deep valuation models, profitability analysis or scenario building for finding their real worth. The Investment made by these companies in the shares of listed companies alone is many times more valuable than their current market capitalization.

One excellent example is Tata Sons, which is the controlling entity or the promoter for majority of the leading Tata Group companies such as Tata Steel, Tata Motors, Tata Power and TCS among others. Unfortunately, although a number of Tata Group entities are listed on stock exchanges, Tata Sons is unlisted. Apart from the Tatas, several other business houses, too, have their holding companies. The other types of companies that figure in our list are Investment Companies.
Long term investing in other companies is their business — an example could be Tata Investment Corporation, while a few others carry on their own distinct businesses apart from the Investment Portfolios. For example, more than half the market capitalisation of Murugappa Group's EID Parry is represented by the market value of its investment (i.e. shareholding) in Coromandel Fertilisers. In other words, the company's core business is valued much cheaper compared to its peers.
The market capitalisation of these companies does reflect the ups and downs in the value of their investment, although they are not in perfect sync. This offers attractive arbitrage opportunities. For example, Vardhman Holdings gained only 35% during last one year, as against 64% jump in the share price of Vardhman Textiles, in which it holds 26.7% stake.
Similarly, Uniphos Enterprises lost over a quarter of its value last year, substantially higher than United Phosphorous that lost just 3%.
In the same period, Binani Industries lost nearly 10% of its market capitalisation, even as the share price of its 65% subsidiary Binani Cements is up 16%.
Last six months have seen an excellent run-up in these companies, most of which have jumped two to four times since then, outperforming the 85% gain in Sensex.
Valuation Problems:
Despite being somewhat similar to close-ended mutual funds that also invest in listed equities, the holding companies' always trade at a discount to the net asset value of their investments. The price movements in the investee companies rarely reflect in the share prices of the investor company.

The reason being that the shareholders of the investor company, unlike in case of a mutual funds, can't force the management to liquidate the investment and distribute the profits to shareholders. Their direct gain is restricted to the cash flows that the investor companies get from its Investment in the form of dividends and other such non-operating incomes. At the same time, the holding company concept is still in its infancy in India and is not fully appreciated by the stock market, unlike in the developed world where a vast majority of large corporations are nothing but holding companies with business operations housed in scores of listed or unlisted subsidiaries. The most famous example, perhaps, is Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, which holds stakes in a vast number of diverse corporates. In India, however, the holding companies have never gained market favour, probably due to the lack of comfort felt by Indian investors. As a rule of thumb, 50% discount to the asset value of their portfolios is considered fair.
One such reason for discomfort is that the promoters hold large stake in the holding companies. The management power is with them so they are the decision makers. The other reason is that holding companies have very low floating stock so it doesn’t catch traders fancy. Very little information about such holding companies is available so investors also stay away from them.

One of the examples is Oscar Investments, holding company of the Ranbaxy group. The company owned 1.77 Cr shares of Ranbaxy (no. of outstanding shares of Oscar are 1.73 Cr), & they sold major stake to Japan’s Dai-ichi for Rs. 737 per share & have received Rs. 1100 Cr or so. If we calculate, the valuations from this only comes to around Rs. 1300 Cr (in addition to its core business activities) whereas its market cap is just Rs. 740 Cr & is available at P/E of less than at Rs. 425 or so. Here promoters hold 69.11% stake & the general public holding is just 7.19%. The company has given the dividend of meager 20% or Rs. 2 per share. Apart from this, Oscar also holds the shares of other group companies, both listed & unlisted. One can safely assume that Oscar has received almost Rs. 635 per share of Oscar from the Ranbaxy stake sale (excluding tax litigations).

But their valuations do dip below this threshold from time to time, which creates opportunities for value pickers. For example, RPG Group's CHI Investments, which was demerged from Ceat Limited in 2007 is currently valued at Rs 63 crore on the stock markets. This is just one-sixth of its Investment Portfolios worth nearly Rs 390 crore, which includes 8.4% stake in KEC International, 1.7% stake in CESC and 9.3% stake in Zensar Technologies. The company is currently seeking shareholder approval for amalgamating itself into RPG Itochu along with three other entities.
Maharashtra Scooters, a Bajaj group company, which was earlier manufacturing scooters, is now reduced to the production of dies, jigs and fixtures for the auto industry. The company's investments in Bajaj group companies are valued over Rs 710 crore, which is four-times its current market capitalisation. Some companies do have their independent business, apart from the investments.
Munjal Group's Majestic Auto manufactures two-wheeler components and spare parts and holds a 0.81% stake in Hero Honda valued at over Rs 250 crore. Still its market value is just Rs 70 Cr — 15 time its earnings for trailing 12 months.
Seed manufacturing company J K Agri Genetics underperformed the markets due to losses in FY09. However, its holdings in other group companies including JK Lakshmi Cement, JK Tyre and JK Paper are valued three times its current market capitalisation. It does not feature in our list due to the outstanding net debt of Rs 44 crore. After three quarters of losses, the company posted 44% growth in net profit for the June 2009 quarter to Rs 15 crore. The company has long been trying to separate its seed and investment businesses.

A few of these companies have decided to focus solely on their Investment Business and grow there. For example, Bajaj Holdings & KK Birla group's SIL Investments have applied for licenses from the Reserve Bank of India to operate as non-banking finance companies (NBFCs). The promoter group of Bajaj Holdings recently subscribed to 1 million warrants pumping in additional cash and emphasizing their intent to grow in the finance industry.
Conclusion:
This goes on to show that a lot of value remains locked in these holding or Investment Companies, which is not fully reflected in their share price right now. And, one cannot hope to unlock the entire value in such companies in a short while. A retail investor should, however, keep looking for chronically undervalued firms or arbitrage opportunities that can generate healthy returns in the long run.