Apr 7, 2010

"India is on the verge of unprecedented multi decade growth."

A 20-bagger! Yes, that's what the US stock markets returned between 1981 and 1998, believed to be the best period ever for the US stock markets. Similarly, between 1978 and 1989, the Japanese stock market turned out to be a near 8-bagger. Please bear in mind that these were returns from the broader markets and there were many stocks in these countries that turned out to be 30, 40 and even 50 baggers. Clearly, if one could identify a multi decade bull market early, there could be no better place than equities.
So, is there any such bull market taking shape anywhere in the world right now? According to Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, one of India's most successful investors, there is a multi decade bull market making its presence felt right here in India. "India is on the verge of unprecedented multi decade growth. Choice of asset class will decide the return. I have allocated 100% of my portfolio to equity asset class", Rakesh opined at a recent seminar. He further added that investors should look for long-term growth prospects and growth-drivers of companies where they invest, rather than getting carried away by short-term apprehensions. Indeed. We couldn't have said it better. While the Indian economy is likely to grow at strong rates well into the future, it is only those companies that constantly churn out products that meet the needs of India's large populace, and also do it profitably will survive. Hence, investors should always be on the lookout for such companies.
Rakesh opines that there is no doubt that the developed world is going to go through a long period of slowdown. He believes that there are too many excesses in the developed world. And sooner or later, they would blow up. However, he himself does not know when the blow up will occur. But he believes that it will happen for sure and there will be below normal growth in developed economies like the US. He further adds that when the slowdown happens, there will be a shift of power, wealth and prosperity, from the West to the East. But this shift will not be easy & smooth. It will have its own problems and there could also be a lot of friction.
And who will benefit from this shift? Is it China that Rakesh is bullish on? Certainly not! Like a lot of other investor in recent times, even he is negative on China. He argues that the business model of the country is unsustainable and hence, not suitable for the long-term. Thus, it is India and Brazil that he believes will be the main beneficiaries of shift in power. Both the countries, he adds, have sustainable long-term models that would ensure years of strong growth. To sum up, he sees good future ahead with some sort of uncertainty. Not to forget the rise of India and Brazil.

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