Aug 20, 2010

Contrarian Bet - Realty

The BSE Realty index is down nearly 30 % over the past year due to concerns over weak demand, excessive leverage and high prices.
While the growth picture continues to be a concern, debt and inventory levels have come down to some extent for most companies.
Focus on mid-income housing and higher sales volumes, year-on-year (aided by the low-base of last year), helped larger ones record an increase in revenues in the June quarter.
Commercial and residential sales are looking up on demand from the IT/ITeS sector but higher prices in certain parts of the country are playing spoilsport and impacting volumes.

Best Bets: Unitech, Orbit, HDIL and non-realty companies (willing to develope their land assets) with huge landbanks, especially in metropolitan cities withwith return expectations ranging 25-45 % over the next year, the leverage levels, volume growth and cash flows need to be monitored.

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